Threat Modeling

Threat modeling

Threat modeling is like a game where you try to think like a hacker to find ways to attack a system. You look at the system from both the attacker’s and defender’s point of view.

How it works:

Identify threats: Figure out who might want to attack the system (like hackers or criminals).

Assess capabilities: Decide how skilled these attackers are.

Create scenarios: Imagine different ways they could attack.

Evaluate defenses: Check if your security systems can stop these attacks.

Why it’s important:

Find weaknesses: It helps you discover flaws in your system’s security.

Prioritize security: It helps you focus on the most important security risks.

Improve monitoring: It helps you build tools to watch for attacks.

Who’s involved:

Security experts: People who know about cybersecurity and threats.

Non-experts: People who use the system or have other interests, like finance or marketing.

Threat actors:

Opportunistic: Hackers who take advantage of easy targets.

Targeted: Hackers who specifically attack a certain system or company.

Nation-state: Hackers working for a government.

Organized crime: Hackers who work together to make money.

Hacktivist: Hackers who attack for political or social reasons.

Adversary capabilities:

Acquired and augmented: Use basic hacking tools and techniques.

Developed: Can find and use new vulnerabilities and plan attacks carefully.

Advanced: Can find weaknesses in software and attack through other companies.

Understanding Threat Modeling

Threat modeling is a security process that involves identifying potential risks and threats to a system by assessing it from both an attacker’s and defender’s perspective. By simulating various attack scenarios and evaluating the effectiveness of defensive measures, organizations can prioritize security efforts and improve their overall resilience. Threat modeling typically involves collaboration among cybersecurity experts, non-technical stakeholders, and individuals with different priorities, such as finance, marketing, and legal concerns. By identifying threat sources, assessing adversary capabilities, and developing threat models based on different levels of sophistication, organizations can gain valuable insights into their security posture and take proactive steps to mitigate risks.

Some examples of Threat Modeling:

• STRIDE

The STRIDE Threat Modeling framework is a systematic approach for identifying and analyzing potential security threats and vulnerabilities in software systems.

• PASTA

The Process for Attack Simulation and Threat Analysis (PASTA) methodology is a risk-based methodology that uses attack trees to depict potential attacks on a system

Understanding Adversary Capability in Threat Modeling

When assessing risks to a system, one of the first steps is to figure out who might attack it. These potential attackers, or “threat actors,” can be grouped based on their approach and goals. Some may be opportunistic (taking advantage of easy targets), while others may be targeting specific organizations. Common types of attackers include nation-states, organized crime groups, and hacktivists.

To understand how likely an attack is and how skilled the attackers are, security experts use “threat intelligence.” This information helps determine the capabilities of attackers, which refers to their ability to create and use new hacking techniques and tools. Based on their capabilities, attackers can be categorized into different levels:

• Acquired and Augmented: These attackers use existing malware and techniques (acquired) or modify existing tools slightly (augmented).

• Developed: These actors can find and exploit unknown vulnerabilities (zero-day exploits) and have significant resources, both in terms of money and people, to plan and carry out attacks.

• Advanced: These attackers can target the supply chain, introducing vulnerabilities into the products and services a company depends on.

• Integrated: These attackers not only use cyber tools but also non-cyber methods, such as leveraging political or military resources.

Each of these levels represents a different level of threat, and understanding them helps in building stronger defenses.

Understanding Attack Surface and Attack Vectors

Attack Surface:

• Definition: The attack surface is the collection of points where an attacker can potentially interact with a system and compromise it.

• Identification: To identify the attack surface, you need to inventory all the assets deployed on your network and the processes they support.

• Scenarios: Consider different scenarios like corporate data networks, websites/cloud, and bespoke software apps to identify potential attack points.

Attack Vectors:

• Definition: An attack vector is a specific method used to exploit a vulnerability in the attack surface.

• Categories: MITRE identifies three main categories:

  • Cyber: Using hardware or software systems (e.g., email, USB, compromised accounts).

  • Human: Exploiting social engineering techniques (e.g., coercion, impersonation).

  • Physical: Gaining physical access to premises (e.g., intrusion, denial of service).

Key Takeaways:

• To effectively protect a system, it’s essential to understand its attack surface and the potential attack vectors.

• By identifying vulnerabilities and implementing appropriate security measures, organizations can reduce their risk of being compromised.